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Public Opinion of the Chechen Population on the Actual Issues of the Republic
Results of Seven Representative Surveys Conducted March-August 2003
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Goals, Tasks and Method of Research
- Research Goal:
- Monitoring the public opinion on the actual issues of the current period
- Research Tasks:
- Representation of the desired status of Chechnya
- Evaluation by the people of Chechnya on the social, economic, and political situation in the republic and the perspectives of its development
- Evaluation by the people of the republic and federal powers in the normalization of living standards in the republic
- Issues on the personal safety of the citizens
- Relation of the population to the decision on amnesty
- Retrospective evaluation of the referendum by the republic’s citizens
- Electoral preferences of the citizens
- Research Method:
- Between March and August, 2003, seven representative surveys were conducted amongst the adult population (18 years and older) of the Republic of Chechnya
- Method: Individual interviews at the respondents’ place of residence
- Sample: Random, stratified and representative in regard to sex, age, education, geographical location of populated areas
- Sample size: 1000 - 1050 respondents
- Each survey was conducted in 70-80 populated areas, proportionally representing all 15 regions of the Republic of Chechnya and the cities of Grozny, Gudermes, and Argun.
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Representation of the Desired Status of Chechnya
- Should Chechnya be a part of Russia or not?
- Over the period from March through August, the percentage of those sharing their opinions on whether Chechnya should be a part of Russia a noted decrease in the number stating “do not know” or “having doubt” was noted.
- The results of the last survey show that in August 78% of the republic’s population believed that Chechnya should be a part of Russia.
- The number of those believing that Chechnya should not be a part of Russia remains practically unchanged at 19%.
- Which level of autonomy should Chechnya have?
- At the end of August (survey of August 15-20) those who believed that Chechnya should develop as a part of Russia, the majority (61%) hold the opinion that the Republic of Chechnya should have more autonomy than other subjects of the federation.
- Why should Chechnya be part of Russia?
- In answering the question in May of why Chechnya should be part of Russia, the respondents gave the following arguments:
- It’s better to live with Russia, Russia is a rich and strong country – 13.8%
- In order to live in peace, without war – 11.9%
- Historically, geographically, and economically Chechnya is tied to Russia and is an integral part of Russia – 11.9%
- It would be impossible to live without Russia; no alternative – 11.6%
- We have bitter experience in seceding; we already tried being independent and nothing has worked over the last 10 years; when we had the chance we did not use it; independence did not help us – 10.3%
- Why should Chechnya not be part of Russia?
- In answering the question in May of why Chechnya should not be part of Russia and should become an independent state, the respondents gave the following arguments: (answers of 16% of the respondents agreeing with this statement)
- Chechnya should be an independent state (no argumentation) - 33.4%
- Russia has always (has for many years) pursued Chechens and is responsible for deportation and the destruction of the people - 14.9%
- Russia is responsible for the last two wars and for the victims of the Chechen people - 15.9%
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Evaluation of the Republic’s Situation
- General Evaluation of the Situation in the Republic
- In August the evaluation of the general situation in the republic has remained practically unchanged in comparison with the beginning of the month: the majority of the population (60%) does not see any changes in the republic’s situation.
- There is a slight increase in the number of those who see positive movements in the republic: up to 26%.
- The number of those who note a worsening of the situation decreased to 13%.
- Signs that the Situation in the Republic of Chechnya Has Improved
- In answering the question, you stated, “The situation has improved.” In what ways has the situation improved in the Republic of Chechnya? The respondents noted the following signs:
- Payment of pensions, government aid, stipends - 36%
- Mass “cleansing” has ceased or has become rarer - 23%
- Creation of new workplaces - 16%
- Renovation work in the republic - 14%
- Payment of salaries - 13%
- Signs that the Situation in the Republic of Chechnya Has Worsened
- In answering the question, you stated, “The situation is worsening.” In what ways has the situation worsened in the Republic of Chechnya? The respondents noted the following:
- Continuance of kidnappings and disappearances of people - 29%
- Continuance of explosions and terrorist acts - 24%
- Murder and death of people - 23%
- Instability - 16%
- Insubordination of Russian military - 13%
- General Evaluation of the Situation in the Republic (2)
- In comparison with June, the figures for July increased among those who evaluate the situation as a continuance of war. This figure grew by 6%, reaching May’s level (24%).
- In July the percentage of individuals believing that a peaceful life has begun decreased in comparison to the previous month by 5%, reaching its minimum figure over the three months (18%).
- Regardless of the fact that the feelings of alarm and uncertainty are still strong amongst the residents of Chechnya (22% and 23% respectively), overall the greater half of the population look to the future with hope (54%).
- Who Has the Power in Chechnya?
- The research conducted in June confirmed the people’s understanding
that real organs are gradually being formed in the republic and local areas.
However, there are other “structural powers” operating in the republic.
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Evaluation of the Government’s Efforts in Normalizing the Situation in the Republic of Chechnya
- Evaluation of the Federal Government and the President of the Russian Federation’s Efforts in Normalizing the Situation in the Republic of Chechnya
- Since March there has been a growth in the number of people who do not see any efforts from the federal government in normalizing life in Chechnya. If in March the percentage of individuals responding negatively to the question of whether the federal government is doing anything in normalizing the situation in Chechnya was 39%, then in August this figure increased by 15%, or 54% of those surveyed.
- The evaluation given in July of Putin’s activity as the president of Russia is quite high: 53% positively evaluated the president of Russia’s activity.
- Evaluation of the Administration of the Republic’s Efforts in Normalizing the Situation in the Republic of Chechnya
- The dissatisfaction with the administration of the republic’s activity in normalizing life in Chechnya continued to grow in August. The number of individuals negatively answering the question of whether the republic’s administration is doing anything to normalize the situation in Chechnya increased by 5% and consisted of 60% of all the surveyed individuals.
- Respectively, the number of positive evaluations on the efforts of the local administration decreased and stood at 36%.
- Expected Actions from the Government in Normalizing the Situation in the Republic of Chechnya
- The most important expectations by the population are: (August 1-6)
- Creation of workspaces - 44%
- Renewal of lawfulness in Chechnya - 22%
- Renovation of housing - 15%
- Hold presidential and parliament elections - 15%
- Aid in personal safety of citizens - 14%
- Evaluation of the Government’s Ability to Normalize the Situation in the Republic of Chechnya
- According to the opinion of those surveyed at the end of August, the federal government has much more ability to normalize the situation in Chechnya than the republic’s administration.
- 88% believe in the federal government’s ability.
- Only half (51%) of the respondents believe that the republic’s administration has the same ability.
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Issues on the Personal Safety of Citizens
- Personal Safety of Citizens: Evaluation of the Situation
- One of the greatest problems among Chechnya’s population is the issue of personal safety. More than half of the population (56%) does not see any movements in solving this issue.
- The largest percentage of those who noted that the situation was becoming worse in regard to the personal safety of the citizens in Chechnya was set in August (27%) in comparison with the previous surveys.
- Personal Safety of Citizens: Sources of Threat
- The main source of threat to the personal safety of citizens is considered to be the federal forces (73%).
- The growth of those who fear criminal elements is continuing (47%). The greatest level of threat from criminal elements is noted by the residents of the southern regions (52%).
- Public Opinion on Explosions by Suicide Bombers (Shakhids)
- It may be concluded that nearly half of Chechnya’s population condemns the suicide bombers (shakhids), calling their actions terrorist acts (48%).
- One-third of those surveyed consider the explosions in Moscow as “acts of despair” (34%) in trying to explain the reasons.
- Motives of Suicide Bombers (Shakhids) and Revolutionaries
- At the end of August (August 15-20 survey), the Republic of Chechnya’s population believed the main reason driving people to become suicide bombers (shakhids) and revolutionaries was revenge for the violence brought on by the federal forces in Chechnya. This is how 69% explain the actions by suicide bombers (shakhids) and 56% - the actions by the revolutionaries.
- Relation to the Decision on Amnesty
- The absolute majority of Chechnya’s population (93.6%) back in May knew about the existence of the State Duma’s decision on the “Announcement of Amnesty in Line with the Acceptance of the Constitution of the Republic of Chechnya.”
- The decision on amnesty has been a long awaited measure by the people
and is a politically and psychologically correct approach by the federal
center. People’s skepticism comes from the fact that “past amnesties” turned
into incapable agitated campaigns and those who received amnesty were under
observation from then on.
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Electoral Moods in the Republic of Chechnya
- Intentions to Participate in the Referendum
- Intentions to participate in the referendum were stated by 62.6% of those surveyed. Of that number, 57% of the respondents had made their absolute final decision to participate in the referendum. The remaining 8% may still change their intentions.
- Approximately one-fourth (26%) of those surveyed stated that they would not participate in the referendum.
- Intentions to Vote “For” or “Against”
- Among those surveyed between March 14-16, the number of those planning to vote “for” the documents entered into the referendum was 66-68%.
- The number of those planning to vote “against” the documents entered into the referendum was 6-10%.
- Referendum: Activeness of the Population
- The data from the representative survey held two months after the referendum was passed on March 23, 2003, shows that the larger part of the adult population in all regions of the Republic of Chechnya actually participated in the referendum.
- 62.1% of the surveyed individuals stated their participation in the referendum.
- Referendum: Voting Results
- As was assumed, the majority of Chechnya’s residents participating in the referendum voted for it.
- Women and individuals without an education had a more positive feeling about the documents entered into the referendum.
- Retrospective Evaluation of the Referendum
- Two months after the referendum, the question was posed as to whether it should have been held or not and less individuals than took part in it answered positively. On the one hand, this is due to the number of people who were disappointed by the referendum’s results: nearly half (46.3%) who had participated in the referendum and who do not believe the official results believe that it was unnecessary to hold the referendum.
- Factors Influencing the Process of Political Regulation
- The election of a president is seen by the population to be the most important factor which may have an influence on the political regulation in Chechnya.
- In June, the list of factors which may have the greatest influence on the process of the political regulation in the Republic of Chechnya is the following:
- Election of president – 64.4%
- Election of parliament – 39.3%
- Negotiations with the representatives from the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria – 31.4%
- Signing of an agreement on the limitations on power between the federal center and Chechnya – 26.9%
- Transfer of management functions and order to the republic’s organizations – 24.6%
- Intentions of Participating in the Elections for President of the Republic of Chechnya
- The upcoming presidential elections for the Republic of Chechnya are still very interesting for the people.
- At the end of August, 73% of the surveyed individuals expressed their intentions to participate in the elections. The number of those intending to participate decreased by 4% in comparison with the beginning of the month.
- Fairness of Elections and Voter Participation
- At the end of August the republic’s people were quite skeptical to the fact that the elections would be fair and free. Less than one-third of those surveyed hope for this (27.5%).
- Readiness to participate in the presidential elections depends on the evaluation of the level of their fairness. 90% of those who believe that the elections will be fair and free will participate in the elections.
- Demands for the President of the Republic of Chechnya
- On the open-ended question given in July of which three basic qualities should a person have running for president of the Republic of Chechnya, the following characteristics were noted:
- Collected, honest, open, doesn’t steal, spotless - 55%
- Educated, literate, erudite, intelligent - 40%
- Respecting the people, caring about the people, humane, merciful - 37%
- “Hall of Fame” of Potential Candidates
- Out of the 15 potential presidential candidates in the Republic of Chechnya, at the end of August the people knew of only three very well: Kadyrov (86%), Aslakhanov (82%) and Saidullaev (79%).
- Considerably falling behind the “top three” but still well-known by the population is Bugaev at 17% and Dzhabrailov at 16%. The remaining candidates are known by 1-6% of the population.
- Initial Tasks for the Newly Elected President of the Republic of Chechnya
- On the open-ended question asked at the end of August of what the newly elected president needs to do first to make the situation in Chechnya better, the following answers were received:
- Create workplaces - 33%
- Cease military operations, establish peace, normalize the situation - 22%
- Renew Chechnya’s economy - 21%
- Housing renewal - 16%
- Pay more attention to children, youth, sports, solve problems in education - 12%
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